Education Cost Analysis
Current NZ University Costs (2026)
Assumption for modelling: a domestic student studies away from home, lives in a shared flat (not a luxury studio, and not a fully catered hall), and completes a standard undergraduate degree.
| Item | Annual Cost | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Tuition (domestic) | $8,700 | Victoria University 2026 domestic averages and University of Auckland 2026 undergraduate fees show most common undergraduate study in the ~$7.6K-$10.2K range |
| Accommodation | $13,000 | Waikato flatting costs imply roughly ~$250/week for a typical shared flat room |
| Living expenses | $10,900 | StudyLink living-cost support plus Waikato weekly student costs for food, utilities, phone, transport, books, clothing, and personal spending |
| Total per year | $32,600 | Reasonable base-case estimate for a domestic student living away from home |
Projected Costs
Today, that implies:
- 3-year BA/BSc-style degree: $97,800
- 4-year engineering/honours-style degree: $130,400
The table below inflates the annual starting cost and the full 4-year degree cost to the likely start years for Henry and Pippa. The 4-year totals assume costs keep rising during the years they are actually studying.
| Year | Annual Cost (3% inflation) | Annual Cost (4% inflation) | Annual Cost (5% inflation) | 4-Year Total (3%) | 4-Year Total (4%) | 4-Year Total (5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2032 (Henry) | $38,926 | $41,249 | $43,687 | $162,852 | $175,164 | $188,297 |
| 2035 (Pippa) | $42,536 | $46,400 | $50,573 | $177,953 | $197,036 | $217,977 |
Useful 3-year totals for comparison:
- Henry, 2032 start: $120,317 (3%), $128,764 (4%), $137,724 (5%)
- Pippa, 2035 start: $131,473 (3%), $144,842 (4%), $159,432 (5%)
Assessment
Bottom line: $100K per child is not a robust assumption anymore.
It is only just enough for a standard 3-year degree in today's dollars, and it is already short for a 4-year degree today. Once we inflate to the actual start dates:
- Henry is likely to need ~$120K-$138K for a standard 3-year degree, or ~$163K-$188K for a 4-year degree.
- Pippa is likely to need ~$131K-$159K for a standard 3-year degree, or ~$178K-$218K for a 4-year degree.
What matters most
- Domestic tuition is regulated. The Government caps annual fee increases through the Annual Maximum Fee Movement. That cap was mostly ~1%-3% from 2017-2024, then jumped to 6% for 2025, with 6% proposed for 2026.
- That means tuition probably rises, but not uncontrollably. The bigger wildcard is living costs (rent, food, transport, and general inflation), not tuition alone.
- Typical degree length: BA/BSc is usually 3 years; engineering and honours pathways are usually 4 years.
Recommendation
For planning purposes:
- New default for a standard domestic degree: $150K per child
- If you want conservative coverage for a 4-year degree or higher-cost cities: $180K-$200K per child
That keeps the plan realistic without assuming an extreme blowout. In short: $100K is too low; $150K is the better base assumption, with $180K+ if we want real margin.