Family Financial Update — May 2026
For Julia
Where We Stand
Net worth: 8.3 million NZD. Liquid investments: 5.5 million NZD. We're in an incredibly strong position. Our investments are working hard — the money we've built up over the last 8 years has compounded to the point where we are now financially independent. That means if Jonathan stopped working tomorrow, we'd have enough to live comfortably for the rest of our lives and still fund everything we want for the kids.
Note: We don't count Jonathan's unvested Microsoft shares (~936K) as part of our wealth — they only become ours as they vest over the next 5 years.
What If We Stop Working Today?
We ran 10,000 simulated market scenarios (good years AND bad years, including crashes) to stress-test our future. Even if no more money goes in and we spend 200K per year:
Core goals (retirement + university + kids' homes): 95% success rate.
The legacy gifts (4M per child) are the stretch goal — we make them conditional on the portfolio being healthy enough at the time (which it will be in most scenarios).
| Year | Jonathan | Julia | Henry | Pippa | Likely Outcome | Bad Luck Scenario | What Happens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41 | 40 | 12 | 9 | 5.5M | 5.5M | Today |
| 2028 | 43 | 42 | 14 | 11 | 6.1M | 4.5M | |
| 2032 | 47 | 46 | 18 | 15 | 7.6M | 4.2M | Henry starts uni |
| 2035 | 50 | 49 | 21 | 18 | 9.1M | 4.1M | Pippa starts uni |
| 2041 | 56 | 55 | 27 | 24 | 12.8M | 4.3M | Henry's first home |
| 2045 | 60 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 16.2M | 3.8M | Pippa's first home |
| 2050 | 65 | 64 | 36 | 33 | 19.7M | 2.5M | Henry's legacy |
| 2053 | 68 | 67 | 39 | 36 | 20.8M | 2.4M | Pippa's legacy |
How to read this: "Likely Outcome" is the median — 50% chance of being above this. "Bad Luck" is the 10th percentile — only a 10% chance of being worse than this. Even in bad luck, the portfolio survives and the kids get their university and homes funded.
The legacy gifts are flexible — we give them when the portfolio can comfortably afford it. In the likely case (and better), that's easily achievable.
With Jonathan still working even 2-3 more years, all risk is virtually eliminated — roughly 460K per year extra going in makes a massive difference to the downside scenarios.
What We Want to Give Henry and Pippa
| Gift | Per Child | Henry (when) | Pippa (when) |
|---|---|---|---|
| University fully paid | 100K | Age 18 (2032) | Age 18 (2035) |
| First home deposit | Up to 1M | Age 27 (2041) | Age 28 (2045) |
| Legacy wealth | 4M (when portfolio allows) | Mid-30s | Mid-30s |
| Total per child | 5.1M |
The university and home deposits are essentially guaranteed. The legacy gifts are highly likely but treated as flexible — they depend on how markets perform over the next 20+ years.
What's Been Decided This Month
Jonathan worked through a comprehensive review with an AI financial advisor. Key outcomes:
-
Restructuring our Kernel investments — moving from cautious/defensive funds toward growth. We have 15-25 years before the big expenses, so we can afford to be bold.
-
Selling Microsoft shares on the US brokerage (about 205K worth) — bringing money home into NZ funds with better tax treatment (28% vs 39%).
-
Resuming "sell and diversify" policy — Microsoft shares sold as they vest, spread across diversified funds.
-
Eliminating the cash buffer entirely — no need to hold cash in funds. When tax payments are due, we sell a small amount from whichever fund has grown the most. Puts all money to work.
-
Confirmed all-PIE strategy — keeping everything in NZ-managed funds for the 28% tax rate. This also eliminates the stressful 150K/year provisional tax payments over time.
Our Safety Margin
The Monte Carlo simulation shows:
- 95% chance our core goals (retirement + uni + homes) are fully funded
- Median outcome by 2053 is 20.8M (even after all gifts and spending)
- The only real risk is committing to fixed legacy amounts regardless of market conditions — which is why we keep that flexible
In a severe market crash (30% drop tomorrow), we'd temporarily be at 3.9 million — still enough to fund 200K per year for decades. Markets recover; they always have over 20+ year periods.
The Bottom Line
Jonathan is 41. He's financially independent today. He's choosing to keep working because it's low-stress and each year adds nearly half a million to our family's wealth. Working even a few more years virtually eliminates all downside risk.
He can walk away whenever the balance tips from "worth it" to "not worth it" — and our family's future is secure either way.